Pistons/Cavaliers o215 (-102)
This total is just a little too low, in my opinion. Yes, the Cavaliers are 8th in defensive rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats, but they’re 26th in defensive rating during the span of their last four games. A big reason for this is because of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Those two players are great for overs. Not only do the Cavaliers play faster with those two, but their offensive efficiency goes up, and their defensive efficiency goes down. For the Pistons, the players who will help the total going over are Jerami Grant and Blake Griffin. According to Basketball-Reference, Grant has been a stud for the Pistons to start this season, as he's currently averaging 24.3 PPG. The Pistons’ efficiency differential with Grant on the court is +15.1, as he adds 10.3 points per 100 possessions. Blake Griffin will help the over differently; he’ll help the over by simply not playing. With Blake Griffin on the sidelines, the Pistons play faster, which has resulted in them going over the total in three of the four games he's sat out. It’s a small sample size, but it appears that Griffin being out tonight will be good for over bettors. It’s also worth noting that multiple trends are pointing to the over. The Cavaliers are 5–0 to the over since Jan. 15th, 2021, going over the total by an average of 22.7 PPG, which is a pretty substantial amount. According to Sports Data Query Language Database, the Pistons are 6–0 to the over on the road since Dec. 28th, 2020, going over the total by an average of 12.92 PPG.
I think the Cavaliers’ defense will continue to regress since Sexton and Garland won’t be learning defense overnight. That leads me to believe the totals for their games won’t remain this low for long. Take the over in this Cavs’ game before their totals get too high.
