Phoenix Suns -3
The Suns started hot, going 5–1 in their first six to open the season. They’ve slowed down dramatically, going 6–7 since their hot start. Despite dropping many games recently, they’re still an above-average team if you look at the advanced metrics. They struggle on offense, ranking 17th in offensive rating. They excel on defense, ranking 4th in defensive rating. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Suns’ great defensive play has given them a net rating of 11th. It’s also worth noting that their offense may actually be better than their offensive rating shows, considering they just had to play four games without their best offensive player, Devin Booker. Booker came back on Monday and scored 24 points, including the game-winning three. According to Cleaning The Glass, Booker has the biggest impact on the Suns’ offense, as they score eight more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, more than any other player on the roster.
The Pelicans are not very good. They’re missing both a leader and star player. I don’t know if I’d call Zion Williamson a star quite yet, and I certainly wouldn’t call the 20-year-old a leader. The Pelicans are sitting at 7–12 and rank 22nd in net rating. This poor net rating is due to the below-average offense (18th in offensive rating) and abysmal defense (24th in defensive rating). They shoot the ball poorly, too, ranking 21st in effective FG%. The one thing they do well is rebound, as they rank 4th in rebounding %. It is worth noting that they may be without Steven Adams, which will definitely hurt them on the boards. The Pelicans should win the rebound battle tonight, but that won’t win the game independently. They’ll still have to score more points than the Suns, which I don’t think will happen.
With or without Steven Adams, I have the Suns winning this game. When you have two below-average offense’s facing off, you have to take the better defense. In this case, the Suns’ defense is elite, while the Pelicans’ defense is abysmal. Take the Pelicans and the three points. If you get -3.5, I’d still take that too.
