Denver Nuggets -2 (-105)
After starting the season 4–5, the Denver Nuggets are now 5th in the Western Conference with a 9–7 record. They’ve won six of their last eight, and I believe they’re a bit better than their record shows. In net rating, the Nuggets are 5th in the entire league. Their offense is on fire, ranking 3rd in the league, in large thanks to early-season MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. Their defense is where they’ve struggled the most this year, ranking 20th in the league. Although their defense is their weakness, they should be able to contain a below-average Mavericks offense. According to NBA Advanced Stats, another area where the Nuggets have an advantage is on the boards, where they rank 4th in rebounding percentage compared to the Mavericks 24th ranking.
The Mavericks have hardly been at full strength this year, so we really haven’t seen their full potential. They won’t be at full strength tonight, as they’ll be without Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, and Josh Richardson. Their biggest loss in efficiency is Maxi Kleber, as their efficiency differential is +8.3 with Kleber on the court. They’ve had Kristaps Porzingis back for six games now, but they still seem to be easing him back from his foot injury, as both his minutes per game and usage rate have gone down from last season, according to Cleaning The Glass. His rebounds per game have also taken a dip since last season, which isn’t good for the 24th ranked team in rebounding percentage. The Mavericks are middle of the pack in net rating, at 14th in the league. They rank 18th in offense and 15th in defense. Their 109.4 PPG is 20th in the league, according to Team Rankings.
I think both of these teams may be better than their record, but I’m giving the edge to the Nuggets. The Mavericks are missing some key players, and I still don’t think Porzingis is 100%. Jokic is in MVP form and should easily win the battle against Porzingis. The Nuggets 3rd ranked offense could turn this into a blowout if the shots are falling. It’s also worth noting that the Nuggets are 4–0 ATS as a favorite since Jan. 10th, covering by an average of 9 PPG, according to Sports Data Query Language Access. Back the Nuggets as a short favorite against a short-handed Mavericks team.
