Celtics -2.5 (-105)
The Boston Celtics have found themselves short-handed more times than not this season. Despite that, they’ve managed a 10–8 record and rank 9th in the NBA in net rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Celtics are a balanced team, ranking 10th in both offensive and defensive rating. They also rank 10th in rebounding percentage. They rank 9th in 3P% allowed, which is good when you’re up against one of the best shooters of all time in Stephen Curry. The Celtics will be without Marcus Smart tonight, but numbers show that they’ve actually performed much better without him this season. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Celtics’ efficiency differential is -11.6 when Smart is on the court. Both the offense and defense have suffered from Smart’s presence this year.
The Golden State Warriors may as well change their name to the Golden State Curry’s. Without Klay Thompson, Curry and the Warriors have struggled. Curry is a phenomenal player, but the Warriors ask too much of him, and he’s clearly not comfortable carrying the load night in and night out. Despite having a winning record of 11–9, the Warriors are a below-average team when diving into the underlying metrics. The Warriors rank 16th in net rating, 23rd in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and 27th in rebounding percentage. Without their ‘splash bro’ duo, the shots have not been falling for the Warriors, as they rank 19th in effective FG%.
The Celtics should be able to smother the Warriors' poor offense, with or without Smart. Of course, Curry can be superhuman and make the game difficult for the Celtics. Still, I’m not too worried about him completely taking over since his specialty is the three-ball, and the Celtics defend the perimeter relatively well. The Celtics hold a substantial advantage on the boards as well. Take the Celtics to cover the short spread.
