Buffalo Sabres ML (-109)
Normally, Buffalo would not be favored in this matchup. They’re favored for good reason, though. The Washington Capitals will be looking to find a win without four key players, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov, and Ilya Samsonov. That’s arguably the league’s best pure goal scorer, their top center, a top-four defenseman, and their starting goaltender. It’s safe to say those guys will be missed out there. We know the Caps are a talented team, but they’ve struggled to create scoring chances this year, even with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. The Caps create 1.55 xGF/60 during 5 on 5 hockey, good for 29th in the league. I can’t see them creating a ton of chances without two key players on offense. Instead, they’ll have to rely on great defense and goaltending to win this game.
Buffalo isn’t a great team by any means. They’ve been okay offensively, but not great, despite bringing in Taylor Hall and Eric Staal in the offseason. They’ve posted a 2.09 xGF/60 during 5 on 5 hockey, which is 14th in the league. They’re a defensive-minded team, which is bad news for a shorthanded Caps roster. The Sabres have posted a 1.48 xGA/60, which is 2nd in the NHL. Their goaltending has struggled, but they shouldn’t have too many problems stopping a shorthanded Caps team that was already struggling to create chances.
It’s hard to play the Caps, given how important the missing players are for them. Back the Sabres here in a game where they certainly have an advantage.
